Rody Duterte will be the last man standing
Presidential prospect and Davao City Mayor Rody Duterte may just be in 3rd and 4th place in the last surveys of the country's two leading polling firms but it is almost certain that when the smoke clears, he will be the Last Man Standing.
The survey numbers provided by Pulse Asia and SWS in their last sampling of 1,200 respondents to gauge the sentiments of 52-million Filipino voters provided an interesting basis for an analysis of what is going to happen in the Presidential elections of 2016.
Pulse Asia, in its June survey, ranked neophyte Senator Grace Poe Number 1 with 30%.
On the other hand, embattled Vice President Jejomar Binay fell from being the frontrunner to 2nd place with 22%, almost half of his numbers early this year.
Mayor Duterte who has consistently declared that the Presidency does not appeal to him made a modest but steady climb with 15%, up from 5% when his name was first included in the survey earlier this year and 12% in the previous poll.
Interior Secretary Mar Roxas remains in the cellar with 10%.
How do we interpret the numbers assuming these are accurate reflections of voters' preference?
Roxas simply does not inspire or excite the Filipino voters and no amount of money, not even the vaunted Liberal Party machinery, could propel him to the Presidency.
Ironically, Roxas' Presidential bid is weighed down not by issues of corruption because he is clean but by his inability to connect with the masses.
Vice President Binay's Presidential ambition is a lost dream.
His failure to address issues of corruption hurled against him, the filing of plunder charges against him and the blunders committed by people around him, including the ill-advised attack on Poe's citizenship issue, have made the situation more difficult for him.
The joke is that unless the Angels from Heaven come down to Earth and announce that God's anointed Presidential candidate is Binay, there is simply no way he could bounce back.
Grace Poe's surge in the surveys is an interesting story.
With less than three years as Senator and an equal time spent as head of a government agency, she does not have a convincing track record as a public official to explain her high approval ratings.
Indeed Sen. Poe possesses the charisma and has benefitted from the goodwill established by her late father, Fernando Poe, Jr. but these do not suffice.
Not even the fact that she has not been tainted by issues of corruption could be cited as the reason behind her spectacular rise in the preference surveys.
There could only be one explanation that is the Filipinos' fondness for real life drama and sob stories and their penchant to sympathize with the oppressed.
The story of a charismatic Senator who was found abandoned in a church in Jaro, Iloilo as an infant, who was adopted by the King of Philippine movies and his equally popular movie actress wife, and who later returned home to the Philippines from the United States to pursue the dream of her late father to serve the Filipinos touched the emotions of the Filipinos.
When the Binay camp unleashed their attack dogs on a perceived competitor for the Presidency and questioned Grace Poe's citizenship and residency, the emotions evolved into pity and sympathy.
Poe's rise in the surveys is largely based on the emotions of the Filipino voters now, at this time when she is being attacked.
The problem with a popularity based on human emotions is the fact that they are temporary.
Remember the disgust and outrage of the nation when over 50 people were massacred in Ampatuan, Maguindanao almost six years ago?
Remember the national grief which followed the massacre of 44 members of the Special Action Force (SAF) in Mamasapano, Maguindanao in January?
Today, the outrage and anger have subsided. In fact, the issues are hardly being mentioned by the mainstream media anymore.
Grace Poe's problem is that the sympathy and pity poured on her by the Filipinos came a bit early with almost a year to go before the elections.
By May next year, the Filipino voters' fickle minds will be consumed with other issues.
Duterte's moderate but steady rise in the surveys could easily be attributed to fundamental issues affecting the Filipinos today.
Drugs, criminality, the flawed justice system where even convicted inmates in Muntinlupa still enjoy life and sell drugs, poverty and the desire of the people to live in a peaceful community are concerns which are constant.
The Filipino people wake up to these problems everyday.
When the starting gun for the Presidential race is fired in October, the Filipino will come to terms with the following realities:
- Mar Roxas, while unsoiled by issues of corruption, cannot simply relate to the ordinary Filipino;
- Jojo Binay is wily politician who could not explain serious issues of corruption and a threat to the well-being of Filipinos;
- Grace Poe is a clean and charismatic young leader whom they love and sympathize with but who lacks the experience to run a fractured country;
- Rody Duterte is a tough-talking Mayor who spews invectives but gets the job done in securing his people and making his city one of the safest in the world and has the guts to stand up to drug dealers and ciminals.
Of the four, he is the only Presidential prospect who has shared his thoughts on how to address the Communist Insurgency, the Bangsamoro Problem, the China Issue, Corruption in Government, Drugs
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| Manny Piñol |
These are clear positions on very critical issues affecting Filipinos everyday.
After the smoke has cleared and the emotions have subsided, Rody Duterte will be the Last Man Standing.
by Manny Piñol.
The author is the former North Cotabato Governor, a political and sports columnist.
The author is the former North Cotabato Governor, a political and sports columnist.
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